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Tornike Surguladze
Davit Keshelava

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GDP Forecast
The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar
to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia’s needs.
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March 2023 | Money transfers from Russia grew by more than thousand percent over the year, driving significant appreciation of the Lari
27 March 2023

As a result of the update, the growth forecast for Q1 of 2023 was reduced by 0.1 percentage points to 2.6%. ISET PI’s second forecast for Q2 of 2023 puts GDP growth at a positive 1.6%.
February 2023 | Inflation in Georgia subsides as global oil and food prices decline, but internal price pressures, driven by migration, remain
28 February 2023

According to Geostat's report titled “Tendency of Economic Growth, Indicators of Monthly Economic Statistics”, the real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 is estimated to be 9.5%, which has contributed to an overall annual real GDP growth of 10.1% in 2022.
January 2023 | We may never see a year like this again: Georgia’s annual growth for 2022 surpasses 10%, amidst regional and global crisis
30 January 2023

Geostat has published its rapid estimate of the real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2022, and its estimated growth stands at 9.5%, which is 2.5 percentage points below the ISET-PI’s most recent forecast.
December 2022 | GDP forecast predicts a slower start to 2023 as inflation driven by food and energy prices remains a challenge to the economy
12 December 2022

Geostat has updated its estimates for the first three quarters of 2022, Q1 2022 growth rate now stands at 15%, while the annual growth rates for Q2 and Q3 slightly increased to 7.2% and 9.8%, respectively. The real GDP growth estimate for the first eleven months of 2022 is 10%.
November 2022 | Annual growth projected to reach the highest value in years, driven by migration, tourism, and trade
14 November 2022

According to Geostat’s updated estimate, the Q3 2022 growth rate stands at 9.7%. As a result, the real GDP growth estimate for the first nine months of 2022 is 10.2%.
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