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Tornike Surguladze
Davit Keshelava

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GDP Forecast
The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar
to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia’s needs.
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January 2023 | We may never see a year like this again: Georgia’s annual growth for 2022 surpasses 10%, amidst regional and global crisis
30 January 2023

Geostat has published its rapid estimate of the real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2022, and its estimated growth stands at 9.5%, which is 2.5 percentage points below the ISET-PI’s most recent forecast.
December 2022 | GDP forecast predicts a slower start to 2023 as inflation driven by food and energy prices remains a challenge to the economy
12 December 2022

Geostat has updated its estimates for the first three quarters of 2022, Q1 2022 growth rate now stands at 15%, while the annual growth rates for Q2 and Q3 slightly increased to 7.2% and 9.8%, respectively. The real GDP growth estimate for the first eleven months of 2022 is 10%.
November 2022 | Annual growth projected to reach the highest value in years, driven by migration, tourism, and trade
14 November 2022

According to Geostat’s updated estimate, the Q3 2022 growth rate stands at 9.7%. As a result, the real GDP growth estimate for the first nine months of 2022 is 10.2%.
October 2022 | In the eye of the storm: driven by strong external sector, the economy is expected to show a double-digit growth in 2022
17 October 2022

ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter (July-September) of 2022 decreased by 0.1 ppt to 16.4% compared to the last month’s prediction. The third estimate for the fourth quarter (October-December) growth forecast remains unchanged at 17.3%.
September 2022 | Georgia’s growth forecast soars on positive trade, tourism, and remittances data. War in Ukraine remains prime concern.
28 September 2022

Recently, Geostat has released the preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2022, which now stands at 7.1%.
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