ISET Policy Institute has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the first and second quarters of 2024. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for January 2024. The estimated growth stands at 5.8%, while the estimated growth of 2023 reached 7.5%.

Due to a recent update in Geostat's GDP calculation methodology in December, revised growth rates show an upward trend compared to the previous month's figures. Consequently, our own forecast for GDP growth has been adjusted upwards to reflect this change.

ISET-PI forecasts Georgia's economy to grow by 10.4% and 10.1% in the first and second quarters of 2024, respectively.

Based on January data, the annual growth in 2024 is expected to be 7.8% in the worst-case scenario, and 9.4% in the best-case or an average long-term growth scenario. Our middle-of-the-road scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts an 8.9% increase in real GDP.

ISET's forecast for robust economic growth in 2024 might be overly optimistic. Our models may not fully capture the disruptive effects of the ongoing war in Ukraine.