Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for March 2024, which stands at 8.2%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first quarter of 2024 reached 7.8%.

For the second quarter of 2024, business confidence in Georgia decreased slightly (by 1.3 index points) and reached 16.4. The highest decrease in business confidence is observed in the trade (-7.4) sector. The negative change in BCI for Q2 2024 was driven by decreased past performance as well as less optimistic expectations.

Due to a recent update in Geostat's GDP calculation methodology in December, revised growth rates show an upward trend compared to the previous month's figures. Consequently, our forecast for GDP growth has been adjusted upwards to reflect this change.

Similar to the year 2022, Georgia stayed on the path of economic recovery from COVID-19 in 2023 as well. According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates, the real GDP continues to show a relatively high growth rate, measuring at 7.5% y/y in 2023 – which is remarkably higher than the NBG’s real GDP growth expectation of 6% from October 2023.

In June 2023, responding to appeals from the Georgian Flour Producers Association, the Georgian government imposed a temporary import duty on wheat flour imported from Russia. This advocacy by the Association began after Russia implemented a “floating tariff” on wheat in 2021, making wheat imports more expensive compared to wheat flour.