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GDP Forecast
The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar
to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia’s needs.
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May 2021 GDP Forecast | Tourism decline was main driver of 2020 negative growth. Will it drive the recovery in 2021?
24 May 2021

ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the second and third quarters of 2021. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

March 2021 GDP Forecast | Growth ups and downs projected in the first two quarters point to an uncertain recovery in 2021
17 March 2021

ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the first and second quarters of 2021. Here are the highlights of this month’s release: The real GDP growth rate amounted to -11.5% year-on-year for January 2021. As a result of the update, the growth forecast for Q1 of 2021 remained unchanged, at -5.4%. ISET-PI’s second forecast for Q2 of 2021 puts GDP growth at positive 11%. Since Q2 2021 growth rate is relative to the same quarter of the previous year, the unusually high 11% growth rate is in part due to the pandemic-driven collapse of GDP observed in Q2 2020 (negative 13.2%). Thus, our forecast model “expects” the bounce back recovery of real GDP relative to last year.

February 2021 GDP Forecast | National, global vaccination efforts, resumption of travel and trade are key to Georgia’s economic recovery in 2021
15 February 2021

ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the first quarter of 2021. Here are the highlights of this month’s release: Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2020, and their estimated growth stands at -6.5%, which is 1.3 percentage points below the ISET-PI’s most recent forecast. The annual real GDP growth in 2020 amounted to -6.1%, which is 0.6 percentage point lower than our recent prediction. Economic activity fell sharply due to global pandemic, although the decline was mitigated by the relatively strong fiscal stimulus and lending. Thus, the growth forecast for Q1 of 2021 was revised downward to -5.4% from -3.5% in January.

January 2021 GDP Forecast | GDP Growth Projections for 2020 currently at -5.5%, but a Two Month Lockdown Means More Bad News for Growth Are Yet to Come
25 January 2021

ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Here are the highlights of this month’s release: The real GDP growth rate amounted to -7.7% year-on-year for November 2020. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first eleven months of 2020 was -5.9%. Recently, Geostat has released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2020. The Q3 growth rate was -5.6% (down by 0.5 ppt relative to the forecast). Thus, the growth forecast for Q4 of 2020 was revised downward to -5.2%. ISET-PI’s second forecast for Q1 of 2021 puts GDP growth at -3.5% (1.9 ppts lower than our previous prediction).

December 2020 GDP Forecast | Decline in Global Oil Prices Drives Trade Balance and Inflation Rate Improvements in Georgia
16 December 2020

ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Here are the highlights of this month’s release: The real GDP growth rate amounted to -3.9% year-on-year for October 2020. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first ten months of 2020 was -5.1%. Recently, GeoStat released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2020. The Q1 and Q2 growth rates were revised downward to 2.2% (by 0.1 ppt) and -13.2% (by 0.9 ppt) respectively. As a result of the update, the growth forecast for Q4 of 2020 remained unchanged, at -3.3%. ISET-PI’s second forecast for Q1 of 2021 puts GDP growth at -1.6%.

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