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Macroeconomic Review
Macroeconomic Review of the Georgian economy is a quarterly publication. The publication offers a comprehensive review and an economic interpretation of the existing data trends, which are based on monthly statistics from GeoStat, NBG, and other sources.
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Quarter 1 2021, Macro Review | The Georgian economy – a long and uncertain road to recovery
21 June 2021

The World Bank (June 2021) estimates that global GDP growth will reach 5.6% year over year (y/y) in 2021. Though thus rebound is uneven, with growth concentrated mainly in advanced economies and developing countries set for a slower recovery.

Quarter 4 2020, Macro Review | The 2020 Georgian economy – the year in review
31 March 2021

The COVID-19 outbreak had a devastating effect on the Georgian economy in 2020. Real GDP contracted by 6.1% according to Geostat’s rapid estimates of economic growth. This was the worst performance of real GDP growth in the country in more than two decades.

Quarter 3 2020, Macro Review | Georgia’s Q3 economic blues reflect the realities of the global supply and demand double shock
11 December 2020

According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s real GDP contracted by 3.8% year over year (y/y) in Q3 2020. As a result, the estimated real GDP declined by 5.0% in the first nine months of 2020, which is in line with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) and National Bank of Georgia’s (NBG) latest projections of -5% y/y (from October and November correspondingly).

Quarter 2 2020, Macro Review | In the Eye of the Hurricane: Georgia’s Economic Performance from April to June 2020
24 September 2020

The COVID-19 outbreak has negatively affected the Georgian economy through reduction in FDI, exports of goods and services, and remittances. In addition, uncertainties caused by the pandemic and containment measures hit consumption and domestic investment. As a result of this reduction in aggregate demand, combined with increased production costs due to pandemic-related constraints, GDP is expected to contract by 5% in 2020 according to NBG’s latest monetary report. The growth estimate has been revised downward since May, when NBG’s forecast stood at -4%. The revision was driven by weaker-than-previously-anticipated external demand, which is mainly caused by delays in the resumption of international flights. According to an alternative scenario, in which pandemic-related restrictions remain in place the whole year, a 6.5% decrease in GDP is expected in 2020.

Quarter 1 2020, Macro Review | Early signs of pandemic
15 April 2020

In March 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy started to sink into what is expected to be the deepest worldwide recession since World War II. Despite unprecedented policy support, the majority of countries have failed to soften the fallout from the crisis. According to World Bank estimates, global GDP will contract by 5.2% year over year (y/y) in 2020. The United States and Euro Area are projected to shrink by 6.1% and 9.1% respectively, while the Chinese economy is expected to grow at just 1% in 2020. In addition, all of Georgia’s neighbours are expected to face an economic contraction this year: from -2.6% (Armenia) to -6% (Russia).

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