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Macroeconomic Review
Macroeconomic Review of the Georgian economy is a quarterly publication. The publication offers a comprehensive review and an economic interpretation of the existing data trends, which are based on monthly statistics from GeoStat, NBG, and other sources.
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Quarter 2 2019, Macro Review | Quarter 2 indicators in good order, but clouds are gathering over Georgia's growth prospects for 2019
27 September 2019

According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s real GDP growth was 4.5% year over year (y/y) in Q2 2019, which fell slightly below the 4.8% growth predicted by ISET-PI’s GDP forecast from July. As economic growth constituted 4.9% y/y in Q1, the Georgian government’s 4.5% target of real GDP growth for 2019 does not seem overambitious.

Quarter 1 2019, Macro Review | Georgian economy in Q1: the calm before the (possible) storm
24 May 2019

According to Geostat’s rapid estimates of GDP growth, Georgia’s economy continues expanding at a moderately high pace, reaching 4.7% in the first quarter of 2019. Geostat’s Q1 growth figure fell below the National Bank of Georgia’s (NBG) 5% projection for annual growth in 2019. Meanwhile, based on the March data, ISET PI’s annual GDP growth forecast was 4.9%.

January 2018 Macro Review | Georgian economy – a year in review
22 February 2019

ISET-PI’s leading GDP indicator forecast, made at the beginning of the year, was more precise. At the time, we predicted 4.6% annual growth in the worst-case, “no growth” scenario, and 5.6% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. While our “middle-of-the-road” scenario predicted the exact 4.8% real GDP growth.

Quarter 3 2018, Macro Review | Q3 growth is considerably weaker than in the 1st half of the year. Domestic retail and business loans show strong growth despite new tougher regulation on credi
24 December 2018

According to Geostat’s figures, in the third quarter (Q3) of 2018, Georgia’s real GDP experienced growth of 4% year over year (YoY). Despite the slowdown of the growth rate compared to the previous quarters, IMF recently revised their forecast of economic growth for Georgia upwardly, from 4.5% to 5.0%. Forecasts for other international organizations and the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) remained the same, while ISET-PI, based on October’s data, expect annual growth in 2018 to be 4.6% YoY.

Quarter 2 2018, Macro Review | A new kid on the block: strong export growth in the first half of 2018 driven by a surge in tobacco product sales.
18 September 2018

Georgia’s real GDP growth constituted a strong 5.5% year over year (YoY) in the second quarter (Q2) of 2018, according to the Geostat figures. Recently this year, IMF and World Bank upped their forecast of economic growth for Georgia from 4.2% to 4.5%. In August, the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) has also revised its forecast for 2018 from 4.8% to 5.5%. Meanwhile, ISET-PI expects annual growth in 2018 to be 6.3% YoY.

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