Indexes

Following the announcement of suspending EU integration, the level of polarization escalated rapidly, reaching its highest point in recent periods, which was maintained at the beginning of December. Traditionally, the polarization index decreases toward the end of the year as political activity subsides with the approach of the New Year. However, despite a slight decline, the polarization level at the end of the current year remained significantly higher than in the same period of previous years.

Polarization reached its historical maximum on November 28, 2024, following Georgian Dream’s suspension of EU accession talks, which sparked widespread protests across Tbilisi and other cities, accompanied by government-led violence against protesters. This unprecedented peak in the division came after weeks of escalating tensions, including pre-election demonstrations and the controversial nomination of Mikheil Kavelashvili, a former footballer and co-founder of the Eurosceptic People's Power party, as Georgian Dream's presidential candidate.

Historically, pre-election periods have shown heightened polarization, with the index often peaking on election day as tensions rise and public discourse intensifies. However, this election cycle defied expectations, as both the pre-election period and election day were notably calm. While the polarization index remained stable overall, it continues to respond to specific events and shows fluctuations throughout the month.

Calm before the storm: the polarization index remained stable in September. During the month, the ruling party, Georgian Dream, unveiled its candidate list featuring well-known athletes. Meanwhile, two opposition parties attempted, but failed, to form a new coalition ahead of the upcoming election. In addition, leaders of the Georgian Dream stirred controversy with remarks about the 2008 war with Russia.

Despite the fact that political parties had already begun their pre-election campaigns, August was relatively quiet, with less activity and a noticeable decline in media polarisation compared to the previous month.