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Davit Keshelava
Yaroslava Babych

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GDP Forecast
The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar
to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia’s needs.
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October 2020 GDP Forecast | Georgia’s growth rate remains negative, but a swift recovery is expected next year
21 October 2020

ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter (July-September) of 2020 remains at -11.6%, unchanged from last month’s prediction. The third estimate for the fourth quarter (October-December) growth forecast stands at -11.8%. Notably, our econometric model depends only on retrospective information (past observations), thus, the abnormally large negative growth of real GDP during the state of emergency period causes an overestimation of the contraction in the following quarters.
September 2020 GDP Forecast | Riding out the pandemic storm: trends, projections and uncertainties
23 September 2020

Recently, Geostat has released the preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2020, which now stands at -12.6%. The real GDP growth rate contracted by 7.7% and 5.5% year-on-year in June and July 2020, respectively. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first seven months of 2020 amounted to -5.8%.
July 2020 GDP Forecast | The perfect storm: trade, tourism, inflation indicators deteriorate dramatically, while remittances are quick to recover
23 July 2020

Geostat has revised its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2020. The estimated growth now stands at 2.2%, which is 0.7 percentage points above the average growth rate previously estimated for Q1. The real GDP growth rate contracted by 16.6% and 13.5% year-on-year in April and May 2020, respectively. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first five months of 2020 amounted to 5.4%.
May 2020 GDP Forecast | Coronavirus realities: dismal Q2 and Q3 growth forecasts may not be low enough
09 June 2020

The estimated real GDP declined by 16.6% in April 2020 yearly and by 3.6 percent in the first four months of 2020. In April, the estimated real growth compared to the same period of the previous year posted negative in almost all activities, except mining and quarrying. Moreover, VAT payers’ turnover, used in rapid estimations of economic growth, dropped by 32.8% annually over the same period.
April 2020 GDP Forecast | February 2020 data shows first signs of dramatic deterioration in Georgia’s economic situation, but international experts expect a quick recovery in 2021
27 April 2020

Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for February 2020. The estimated growth stands at 2.2%, while the average real GDP growth for January-February 2019 reached 3.7%. ISET-PI predicted 4.7% and 5.4% growth for the first and second quarters of 2020 respectively, based on February 2020 data. This data does not yet fully account for the negative impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the national economy.
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