ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat has updated its estimates for the first three quarters of 2022, Q1 2022 growth rate now stands at 15%, while the annual growth rates for Q2 and Q3 slightly increased to 7.2% and 9.8%, respectively. The real GDP growth estimate for the first eleven months of 2022 is 10%.

As a result of the update, the ISET-PI growth forecast for Q4 of 2022 was changed to 12% (increased by 0.1 percentage point compared to the same figure of the previous edition). ISET-PI’s forecast for Q1 of 2023 remains unchanged at 3.9%.

Based on October’s data, we expect annual growth in 2022 to be 11%. Historically, our model’s forecast based on October data is rather accurate, but this year the number is most likely slightly overestimated. This is because the current shock (the war, sanctions, and large-scale in-migration) had not had relevant analogues in the Georgian data in the past.