March 2025 | ISET-PI forecasts 2025 GDP growth between 4.1% and 6.8%; January growth hits 11.1% despite rising political tensions

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20 March 2025

ISET Policy Institute has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the first and second quarters of 2025. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for January 2025, which stands at 11.1%.

ISET-PI forecasts Georgia's economy to grow by 8.6% in Q1 and 7.2% in Q2 of 2025. However, this forecast might be slightly overestimating growth, as the ongoing political tensions and turmoil have not yet been reflected in the data. The model relies on data up to December 2025, capturing only the first three months of the political crisis.

Based on January data, the annual growth in 2025 is expected to be 4.1% in the worst-case scenario, and 6.8% in the best-case or an average long-term growth scenario. Our middle-of-the-road scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 5.9% increase in real GDP.

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