ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the first and second quarters of 2023. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:
According to Geostat's report titled “Tendency of Economic Growth, Indicators of Monthly Economic Statistics”, the real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 is estimated to be 9.5%, which has contributed to an overall annual real GDP growth of 10.1% in 2022.
As a result of the update, the growth forecast for Q1 of 2023 was revised downward to 2.7% from 3.9% in January. ISET PI’s first forecast for Q2 of 2023 puts GDP growth at 1.6%.
Based on December data, the annual growth in 2023 is expected to be 2% in the worst-case scenario, and 3% in the best-case or average long-term growth scenario. Our middle-of-the-road scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 2.4% increase in real GDP.
These numbers are most likely underestimated by the model at the current point in time. This is due to the fact that ongoing large-scale in-migration had not had relevant analogues in the Georgian data in the past.
20
February
2025
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for December 2024, which stands at 6.7%, while the average annual real GDP growth reached 9.5%.
22
January
2025
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for November 2024, which stands at 7.5%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first, second, and third quarters of 2024 reached 8.7%, 9.7%, and 11%, respectively. Consequently, the average real GDP growth from January to November 2024 reached 9.4%.
20
December
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for October 2024, which stands at 11%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first, second, and third quarters of 2024 reached 8.7%, 9.7%, and 11%, respectively. Consequently, the average real GDP growth from January to October 2024 reached 10%.
20
November
2024
GeoStat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for September 2024, which stands at 8.3%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first, second, and third quarters of 2024 reached 8.4%, 9.6%, and 11.1%, respectively. Consequently, the average real GDP growth from January to September 2024 reached 9.8%.
25
October
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for July 2024, which stands at 13%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first and second quarters of 2024 reached 8.4% and 9.6%, respectively. Consequently, the average real GDP growth from January to August 2024 reached 10%.
