ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:
According to Geostat’s updated estimate, the Q3 2022 growth rate stands at 9.7%. As a result, the real GDP growth estimate for the first nine months of 2022 is 10.2%.
As a result of the update, the ISET-PI growth forecast for Q4 of 2022 was changed to 11.9%. ISET-PI’s first forecast for Q1 of 2023 puts GDP growth at 3.9%.
Based on September’s data, we expect annual growth in 2022 to be 10.8%. Historically, our model’s forecast based on September data is rather accurate, but this year the number is most likely slightly overestimated. This is because the current shock (the war, sanctions, and large-scale in-migration) had not had relevant analogues in the Georgian data in the past.