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GDP Forecast
The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar
to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia’s needs.
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January 2019 GDP Forecast | Georgia’s Overall GDP Growth Softens at the End of 2018, While Exports, Remittances, and Tourism Continue to Expand
21 January 2019

Geostat updated its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2018. The Q3 estimate was revised downward to 3.7% (0.3 percentage points lower than the previous estimate). The real GDP growth rate reached only 2.2% year-on-year for November 2018. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first eleven months of 2018 was revised downward to 4.7%.

December 2018 GDP Forecast | Real GDP Growth Is Expected to Reach 4.6% in 2018, As Manufacturing, Trade and Construction Sectors Drive Strong Performance in October
10 December 2018

Geostat recently updated its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2018. The Q1 and Q2 GDP growth estimates were revised downward to 5.2% and 5.6%, respectively. The third quarter estimates so far remained unchanged.

November 2018 GDP Forecast | Construction Falters, While the External Sector Continues to Improve in September 2018
12 November 2018

Recently, Geostat has released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2018. The Q3 growth rate now stands at 4.0%, which is 3.2% below the ISET-PI’s last forecasted value. As a result, the estimated real GDP growth for the first nine months of 2018 amounted to 4.9%. ISET-PI revised its forecast of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2018 to 3.7% - down from 6.4% in October.

October 2018 GDP Forecast | Georgia’s Growth Projections Still Optimistic, but the Downside Risks Are Significant
29 October 2018

Growth projections for the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2018 were revised downward by less than 0.1 percentage points. They now stand at 7.2% and 6.4% respectively. Recently, Geostat published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for August, which now stands at 2%. As a result, the real GDP growth estimate for the first eight months of 2018 was reduced to 4.8%.

September 2018 GDP Forecast | Georgia's Growth Projections Are Strong, but the Turkish Lira Crisis May Dampen the Buoyant Forecasts in the Second Half of the Year
24 September 2018

Recently, Geostat released the preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter (April-June) of 2018, which now stands at 6.0%. This is only 0.1 percentage points above the recent ISET-PI forecast. As a result, real GDP growth for the first seven months of 2018 reached 5.5%.

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