ISET Policy Institute has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the first and second quarters of 2022. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:
Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2021, and their estimated growth stands at 9.5%, which is 1.4 percentage points below the ISET-PI’s most recent forecast.
The annual real GDP growth in 2021 amounted to 10.6%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than our recent prediction.
As a result of the update, the growth forecast for Q1 of 2022 was revised downward to 5.9% from 7.4% in January. ISET PI’s first forecast for Q2 of 2022 puts GDP growth at negative 3.9% (as explained below, the negative result is driven in part by the high base effect from Q2 2021, when quarter’s growth reached 28.9%).