February 2022 | Higher food and fuel prices on the global market drive inflation and dampen growth forecasts for Georgia
14 February 2022

ISET Policy Institute has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the first and second quarters of 2022. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2021, and their estimated growth stands at 9.5%, which is 1.4 percentage points below the ISET-PI’s most recent forecast.

The annual real GDP growth in 2021 amounted to 10.6%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than our recent prediction.

As a result of the update, the growth forecast for Q1 of 2022 was revised downward to 5.9% from 7.4% in January. ISET PI’s first forecast for Q2 of 2022 puts GDP growth at negative 3.9% (as explained below, the negative result is driven in part by the high base effect from Q2 2021, when quarter’s growth reached 28.9%).