December 2021 GDP Forecast | Poised to see a nearly 10% GDP growth in 2021, Georgia still struggles with inflation, stagnant consumer confidence and slow tourism recovery
16 December 2021

ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Recently, Geostat released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2021. The Q1 and Q2 growth rates were revised upward to -4.1% (by 0.4 ppt) and downward to 28.9% (by 1 ppt) respectively. The real GDP growth rate amounted to 6.9% year-on-year for October 2021. Consequently, the estimated real GDP growth for the first ten months of 2021 was 10.5%.

As a result of the update, the growth forecast for Q4 of 2021 decreased by 0.1 ppt to 10.8%. ISET-PI’s second forecast for Q1 of 2022 puts GDP growth at 7.3%.

Based on October’s data, we expect annual growth in 2021 to be 10.7%, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous forecast.