April 2022 | GDP growth based on february 2022 data: a calm before the storm?
25 April 2022

ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the first and second quarters of 2022. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for February 2022. The estimated growth stands at 14.6%, while the average real GDP growth for January-February 2022 reached 16.3%.

ISET-PI predicted 4.6% and -4.6% growth for the first and second quarters of 2022 respectively, based on February 2022 data. Considering the rapid estimate of economic growth for January-February 2022, the Q1 forecast is expected to considerably underestimate the real GDP growth, while the negative growth in Q2 is driven in part by the high base effect from Q2 2021 when the quarter’s growth reached 28.9%. This data does not yet fully account for the negative impacts of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the national economy.

Consequently, according to the ISET-PI forecasting model, the annual growth in 2022 based on February data was expected to be 0.6% in the worst-case scenario, and 1.6% in the best-case or an average long-term growth scenario. Our middle-of-the-road scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicted a 1% increase in real GDP.