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Tornike Surguladze
Davit Keshelava

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GDP Forecast
The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar
to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia’s needs.
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October 2022 | In the eye of the storm: driven by strong external sector, the economy is expected to show a double-digit growth in 2022
17 October 2022

ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter (July-September) of 2022 decreased by 0.1 ppt to 16.4% compared to the last month’s prediction. The third estimate for the fourth quarter (October-December) growth forecast remains unchanged at 17.3%.
September 2022 | Georgia’s growth forecast soars on positive trade, tourism, and remittances data. War in Ukraine remains prime concern.
28 September 2022

Recently, Geostat has released the preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2022, which now stands at 7.1%.
April 2022 | GDP growth based on february 2022 data: a calm before the storm?
25 April 2022

Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for February 2022. The estimated growth stands at 14.6%, while the average real GDP growth for January-February 2022 reached 16.3%.
February 2022 | Higher food and fuel prices on the global market drive inflation and dampen growth forecasts for Georgia
14 February 2022

Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2021, and their estimated growth stands at 9.5%, which is 1.4 percentage points below the ISET-PI’s most recent forecast. The annual real GDP growth in 2021 amounted to 10.6%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than our recent prediction.
January 2022 GDP Forecast | Georgian economy continues to recover from covid-19 impact, but inflation threatens stability as food prices soar by 17.7 percent
17 January 2022

Recently, Geostat revised upward its real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2021 to 9.1% (by 0.1 ppt). The real GDP growth rate amounted to 12% year-on-year for November 2021. Consequently, the estimated real GDP growth for the first eleven months of 2021 was 10.7%.
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