ISET Policy Institute has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the first and second quarters of 2024. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:
Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for February 2024. The estimated growth stands at 9.5%.
Due to a recent update in Geostat's GDP calculation methodology in December, revised growth rates show an upward trend compared to the previous month's figures. Consequently, our forecast for GDP growth has been adjusted upwards to reflect this change.
ISET-PI forecasts Georgia's real GDP to grow by 10.4% and 9.8% in the first and second quarters of 2024, respectively.
Based on February data, the annual growth in 2024 is expected to be 7.8% in the worst-case scenario, and 9.4% in the best-case or an average long-term growth scenario. Our middle-of-the-road scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts an 8.9% increase in real GDP.
ISET's forecast for robust economic growth in 2024 might be overly optimistic. Our models may not fully capture the disruptive effects of the ongoing war in Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East, and other Geopolitical tensions.
20
November
2024
GeoStat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for September 2024, which stands at 8.3%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first, second, and third quarters of 2024 reached 8.4%, 9.6%, and 11.1%, respectively. Consequently, the average real GDP growth from January to September 2024 reached 9.8%.
25
October
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for July 2024, which stands at 13%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first and second quarters of 2024 reached 8.4% and 9.6%, respectively. Consequently, the average real GDP growth from January to August 2024 reached 10%.
23
September
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for July 2024, which stands at 13%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first and second quarters of 2024 reached 8.4% and 9.5%, respectively. As a result, the average real GDP growth from January to July 2024 was 9.7%.
22
July
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for May 2024, which stands at 9.2%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first quarter of 2024 reached 8.4%, which is 0.6 ppt higher than the previous estimate. As a result, the average real GDP growth for January - May 2024 reached 9.3%.
24
June
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for April 2024, which stands at 11.8%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first quarter of 2024 reached 7.8%.
