ISET Economist Blog

11 October 2019

Mariam Lobjanidze, Norberto Pignatti, Mariam Tsulukidze

The Warning Bells are Ringing: A Difficult Summer Season for the Georgian Electricity Market

Historically, the main concern in monitoring the Georgian electricity market derives from the negative generation-consumption gap arising in the winter season. However, persistent electricity deficits over ten months between August 2018 and August 2019 suggest that the number of months characterized by a negative generation-consumption gap might be on the rise. Looking at Figure 1 below, generation can only clearly be seen to exceed consumption twice during the past 12 months, in May and June.

28 June 2019

Mariam Lobjanidze, Norberto Pignatti, Mariam Tsulukidze

An Assessment of the Electricity Market in Light of the “Gavrilov Effect”

The latest impact of Gavrilov’s visit to Georgia has fueled societal concerns about the economic consequences of deterioration in Russo-Georgian relations. For instance, due to the Russian government’s decision to cancel flights to Georgia, residents are beginning to worry about potentially adverse economic impacts on the tourism sector. ISET-PI has already discussed the expected impact of such a change, highlighting how these concerns might be unwarranted, as tourism accounts for 7.6% of the GDP, with Russian tourism contributing only 1.8% to the economy.

31 May 2019

Mariam Lobjanidze, Norberto Pignatti, Mariam Tsulukidze

A Persistent Negative Generation-Consumption Gap, a Puzzle to Be Explored

Looking at consumption and generation trends, it is evident that since August 2018 consumption typically exceeded generation. The negative generation-consumption gap also remained throughout April, amounting to 45 mln. kWh, with a total power generation of 966 mln. kWh and consumption of 1,012 mln. kWh. Yet why has the generation-consumption gap remained negative since August 2018? Should we also expect the negative gap to persist over the following months?

03 May 2019

Norberto Pignatti, Levan Pavlenishvili

What Can Be Learned from the Experiences of the Khadori 3 HPP Project?

News of the conflicts between the local population and the construction company involved in the construction of a small HPP in the Pankisi valley (Khadori 3) has recently made it into the headlines. Khadori is a small HPP with an installed capacity of 5.4 MW and an estimated annual generation of 27.5 mln. kWh. Construction of the Khadori 3 HPP started on 21 April, however, the local population resisted the project, and consequently, its company involved law enforcement officials to ensure its secure implementation.

19 April 2019

Mariam Lobjanidze, Mariam Tsulukidze, Norberto Pignatti

Is Georgia on the Right Path to Reduce Massive Plastic Bag Usage?

In September 2016, the average price of cooking one Imeretian khachapuri stood at 3.43 GEL. Compared to the previous month (August 2016) the Khachapuri Index gained 8.6%. The upward trend in Index at this time of the year is mostly related to the seasonal increase in the price of cheese (due to dwindling supply of fresh milk). While going up in monthly terms, the Index actually dropped 0.8% compared to the same time of last year (y/y). As shown in the chart, the main contributors to Khachapuri Index annual deflation were eggs (-7%) and cheese (-3%). All other ingredients increased in price: milk (1%), flour (2%), yeast (9%), and butter (17%). Interestingly, prices fell y/y for locally produced goods (eggs and cheese); prices went up for goods that are imported (yeast and butter) or use imported intermediate inputs in their production (flour and milk).

29 March 2019

Mariam Tsulukidze, Mariam Lobjanidze, Norberto Pignatti

Net-Metering: A Realistic Green Solution to the Generation-Consumption Deficit?

In February 2019, Georgian power plants generated 939 million kWh of electricity, which compared to the previous year represents a 0.5% increase in total generation. On the demand side, consumption amounted to 1,037 mln. kWh, a 2% decrease on an annual basis. Although the negative gap between generation and consumption decreased by 22% (from -126 to -98 mln. kWh), compared to the corresponding month of the previous year, it remained substantial.

ISET Economist Blog

A blog about economics in the South Caucasus financed within the institutional grant by the Government of Sweden.