This note provides an overview of recent developments regarding Georgia’s foreign exchange Gross International Reserves (GIR), offers insights into some aspects of reserve adequacy, and central bank’s safeguards principles in the context of heightened political uncertainties. It appears that the GIR are likely inadequate to withstand prolonged political uncertainties. Furthermore, the National Bank of Georgia's (NBG) governance and regulatory frameworks are not presently equipped to counter these challenges. Considering these findings, the need for reforms to enhance the NBG’s financial autonomy and strengthen institutional credibility cannot be overstated.

CONTEXT: HEIGHTENED POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES

For the past two years, Georgia has been experiencing persistent political instability triggered by various legislative and electoral actions of the ruling party and culminating in a deep political crisis of domestic and internation legitimacy of the ruling party presently (Chart 1.). Political turbulences have aggravated with the first attempted introduction of the law on transparency and foreign influence in 2023 which was followed by protests, resulting in its withdrawal, and a promise by the ruling party of its non-introduction in the future. Tensions scaled up significantly in spring 2024, when the ruling party broke its promise, re-initiated, and approved the highly controversial and widely protested LAW ON TRANSPARENCY OF FOREIGN INFLUENCE.

While the pre-Parliamentary election period in autumn 2024 remained relatively calm, demonstrations erupted once none of President, the opposition political parties, and international observers recognized the election results. Protest actions peaked in November 2024 when Georgian Dream announced its decision not to place the issue of opening accession negotiations with the EU on the agenda until the end of 2028. Massive demonstrations were violently dispersed by the ruling party followed by arrests and repressive legislative actions.  Presently, demonstrations continue, reflecting the public's sustained dissatisfaction with the government’s stance and actions.

The international legitimacy of the ruling party is also under scrutiny and its isolation is growing. Key strategic partners of Georgia have announced their financial disengagement plans and introduced sanctions against the ruling party. The USA has halted its strategic partnership with Georgia, while some EU countries have stopped cooperation with the Georgian government, redirecting their funds to support civil society in Georgia. In addition, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the U.S. Department of the Treasury recently imposed sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili. These measures, which include asset freezes and travel bans, aim to address democratic backsliding in Georgia and Ivanishvili's personal role in the country's perceived drift toward Russian influence. The United States has imposed Global Magnitsky sanctions on Georgia’s Minister of Internal Affairs and Deputy Head of the Special Tasks Department, citing their roles in violent crackdowns on media, opposition, and protesters.

For the complete paper, please refer to the attached policy document (above).