Economic development of the municipalities (outside capital) is one of the key sustainable development challenges in Georgia. The capital city of Tbilisi, while accounting for nearly 1/3 of the country’s population generates 50% of GDP and keeps expanding, whereas the municipalities, with few exceptions, are losing population and suffering from high incidence of poverty, unemployment, and slow and weak economic development.

This policy brief examines the role of business confidence as a predictor of economic development. It focuses on the impact of recent political instability and economic uncertainty, drawing insights from both Georgian data and international experience.

This note provides an overview of recent developments regarding Georgia’s foreign exchange Gross International Reserves (GIR), offers insights into some aspects of reserve adequacy, and central bank’s safeguards principles in the context of heightened political uncertainties. It appears that the GIR are likely inadequate to withstand prolonged political uncertainties. Furthermore, the National Bank of Georgia's (NBG) governance and regulatory frameworks are not presently equipped to counter these challenges.

The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the U.S. Department of the Treasury recently imposed sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire widely regarded as Georgia's de facto ruler and the honorary chair of the Georgian Dream party. These measures, which include asset freezes and travel bans, aim to address democratic backsliding in Georgia and Ivanishvili's personal role in the country's perceived drift toward Russian influence.

The U.S. presidential election is one of the most consequential global political events, influencing not only internal American policies but also its relationships with countries worldwide. It has far-reaching implications beyond the American citizenry that affect international partners, including Georgia. As a small, strategically located country in the South Caucasus, Georgia’s economy is deeply intertwined with the geopolitical environment and under the support of key allies like the United States.

The potential outcomes of the 2024 U.S. presidential election are poised to significantly impact Georgia’s economy through various channels. Beyond broader global and regional impacts of US foreign policy course, there are more specific economic aspects including trade, immigration, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and exchange rates. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump advocate distinctly different foreign and domestic policies that could shape these factors, ultimately influencing Georgia’s economic trajectory.