INTRODUCTION

The U.S. presidential election is one of the most consequential global political events, influencing not only internal American policies but also its relationships with countries worldwide. It has far-reaching implications beyond the American citizenry that affect international partners, including Georgia. As a small, strategically located country in the South Caucasus, Georgia’s economy is deeply intertwined with the geopolitical environment and under the support of key allies like the United States. Since the early 1990s, the U.S. has been Georgia’s most critical partner, providing financial assistance, fostering trade relations, and supporting the country’s complex reform agenda, institution building, and economic development through various partnership programs. The 2024 United States presidential election is naturally expected to have a significant influence on the global economy, including a notable impact on Georgia. Depending on the outcomes of the candidates’ pre-election campaigns, the election of either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump could have varying effects on the Georgian economy. Beyond its implications on the state of democracy globally, this influence may be felt through different channels, including international trade, migration, remittances, exchange rates, and foreign investment.

The U.S. has long been one of Georgia’s most important strategic partners, and the outcome of the 2024 presidential election could significantly shape the future of this partnership. Donald Trump, representing the Republican Party, is running on an “America First” platform, prioritizing U.S. interests over multilateral agreements. His foreign policy approach emphasizes unilateral trade deals, reducing U.S. commitments to international organizations such as NATO, and adopting a tough stance on immigration. If elected, Trump is likely to continue confronting China on trade and security issues, while seeking a more friendly relationship with Russia. Such policies focus on economic protectionism and national sovereignty and may alter U.S. engagement in the South Caucasus, including in Georgia, especially concerning defence and economic support. In contrast, Kamala Harris, representing the Democratic Party, advocates for multilateralism, rebuilding alliances, and strengthening international institutions like NATO and the UN. Her foreign policy emphasizes democracy, human rights, gender equality, and global cooperation on key issues like climate change and public health. Harris is expected to maintain an uncompromising stance on Russia, aligning more closely with European Union standards, which could provide stronger support for Georgia’s Western integration efforts, especially in areas such as trade, foreign aid, and security cooperation (Council on Foreign Relations, 2024). Moreover, she seeks to promote international trade agreements that uphold both labour and environmental standards. The candidates’ differing approaches to foreign policy and global economic engagement could therefore significantly shape Georgia’s economic future, influencing trade relations, foreign aid, investment flows, and regional security.

The American-Georgian partnership, established after Georgia’s independence in 1992, has been pivotal in supporting Georgia’s democratic reforms, economic development, and Euro-Atlantic integration. The U.S. has provided substantial aid, fostered trade and investment, and contributed to Georgia’s security and resilience against Russian aggression. However, relations have recently become strained due to concerns over Georgia’s political direction and the state of democracy and human rights, particularly following the controversial “Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence”, which led to U.S. sanctions on Georgian officials in 2024. These tensions also reflect mounting concerns about Georgia’s adherence to democratic standards (Voice of America, 2024).

For the complete study, please refer to the attached policy document (above).