Historically, pre-election periods have shown heightened polarization, with the index often peaking on election day as tensions rise and public discourse intensifies. However, this election cycle defied expectations, as both the pre-election period and election day were notably calm. While the polarization index remained stable overall, it continues to respond to specific events and shows fluctuations throughout the month.

The U.S. presidential election is one of the most consequential global political events, influencing not only internal American policies but also its relationships with countries worldwide. It has far-reaching implications beyond the American citizenry that affect international partners, including Georgia. As a small, strategically located country in the South Caucasus, Georgia’s economy is deeply intertwined with the geopolitical environment and under the support of key allies like the United States.

Calm before the storm: the polarization index remained stable in September. During the month, the ruling party, Georgian Dream, unveiled its candidate list featuring well-known athletes. Meanwhile, two opposition parties attempted, but failed, to form a new coalition ahead of the upcoming election. In addition, leaders of the Georgian Dream stirred controversy with remarks about the 2008 war with Russia.

The potential outcomes of the 2024 U.S. presidential election are poised to significantly impact Georgia’s economy through various channels. Beyond broader global and regional impacts of US foreign policy course, there are more specific economic aspects including trade, immigration, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and exchange rates. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump advocate distinctly different foreign and domestic policies that could shape these factors, ultimately influencing Georgia’s economic trajectory.

The Index shows an increase in media polarization since 2020, particularly acute since early 2022. While the Index captures significant polarization around specific events like elections, its response varies across different events and developments.