Over the past seven decades, fertility decline has become one of the most significant demographic transformations worldwide. The global total fertility rate (TFR)—defined as the average number of children a woman would bear if current age-specific fertility rates prevailed throughout her reproductive life—declined from approximately five births per woman in the early 1960s to around 2.3 births per woman in the early 2020s (United Nations, 2022; Ritchie, Spooner & Roser, 2023). Although the pace and timing of fertility decline have differed across regions, the overall direction has been remarkably consistent.

In 2025, President Donald Trump reintroduced a sweeping tariff policy as a central element of his economic agenda. Framed as a “universal baseline tariff,” the new measures impose a 10% duty on all imports and introduce even higher reciprocal tariffs on countries with large trade surpluses with the United States. These policies mark a continuation and an escalation of Trump’s earlier protectionist approach during his first term.