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Tornike Surguladze
Davit Keshelava

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GDP Forecast
The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar
to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia’s needs.
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April 2018 GDP Forecast | No news is good news for Georgia, as forecasts point to stable growth
24 April 2018

ISET-PI’s forecast for the first two quarters of 2018 stands at 4.1% and 5.1%, respectively (no change from last month’s estimations). Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for January and February of 2018. Estimated growth stands at 4.4% and 5.5%, correspondingly. As a result, the average real GDP growth for January-February 2018 reached 4.9%.
March 2018 GDP Forecast | Deja-vu: will growth in 2018 look similar to 2017? The economy might still surprise us…
27 March 2018

Geostat has revised its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2017. Estimated growth now stands at 5.4%, which is 0.7 percentage points above the previously estimated average growth rate for Q4. As a result, the real GDP growth for 2017 reached 5.0%.
February 2018 GDP Forecast | In 2017 Georgia enjoyed the highest growth in five years, but rapid consumer credit expansion needs to be closely monitored
28 February 2018

Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2017. Estimated growth stands at 4.7%, which is only 0.1% higher than the value forecasted in the last update of our model.
January 2018 GDP Forecast | Trade, not consumption or investment, is poised to be the largest source of GDP growth for Georgia in 2017
22 January 2018

Based on November 2017 data, the forecast for GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2017 remained at 4.6%. Real GDP growth rate reached 3.7 % y-o-y in November 2017. As a result, estimated real GDP growth for the first eleven months of 2017 was 4.8%.
December 2017 GDP Forecast | October GDP growth data is in: Georgia at 5.7%, Armenia surges to 17.6% year on year
20 December 2017

Geostat updated its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2017. The Q1 and Q2 GDP growth estimates were revised upward by 5.3% and 4.9%, respectively (0.2% higher than initial estimates). The third quarter estimates remained unchanged so far.
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