January 2019 GDP Forecast | Georgia’s overall GDP growth softens at the end of 2018, while exports, remittances, and tourism continue to expand
21 January 2019

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2018 (final update), and the first quarter of 2019. These are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat updated its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2018. The Q3 estimate was revised downward to 3.7% (0.3 percentage points lower than the previous estimate).

The real GDP growth rate reached only 2.2% year-on-year for November 2018. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first eleven months of 2018 was revised downward to 4.7%.

ISET-PI’s real GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2018 was reduced to 3.4%.

Based on November’s data, annual growth in 2018 is expected to be 4.5%.

According to the most recent (second vintage ) forecast for 2019, the growth rate in the first quarter is expected to be 2.8%.

The National Bank of Georgia’s forecast for real GDP growth in 2018 remained the same at 5.5%, while the World Bank predicts 5.3% growth. It is notable that NBG has maintained the growth forecast at 5% for 2019. This number coincides with the WB’s recent estimate.