Indexes
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Geostat has released its preliminary estimates of GDP growth for the third quarter. The estimated Q3 growth is 2.5%, only 0.1 percentage points below the ISET-PI forecasted value. The forecast for GDP growth in the fourth quarter now stands at 3.6%.
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The final growth forecast for the third quarter of 2015 has not changed significantly since last month (declining by only 0.02%) and remains at 2.6%. Similarly, the second growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2015 is still 3.8%.
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The growth forecast for the third quarter of 2015 has not changed since last month and remains at 2.6%. The first forecast for the fourth quarter growth of 2015 has been targeted at 3.8%.
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Given the newly revised Q3 forecast, the annual growth in 2015 is expected to be 2.6% in the worst-case, or “no growth” scenario, and 3% in the best-case, or “average long-term growth” scenario (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology).
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The growth forecast for the second quarter of 2015 was revised slightly downward from 5.1% to 5.0%. The growth forecast for the third quarter of 2015 has been targeted at 5.3%. Meanwhile, Geostat updated its GDP growth estimate for April 2015 to 0.9%.