GDP Forecast
The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar
to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia’s needs.
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December 2015 GDP Forecast | Decrease in the trade deficit – a small, but positive impact on the growth forecast
17 December 2015

We have recently updated the GDP series (the dependent variable in our model), using the revised GDP growth rates available from Geostat. Based on the new data, the forecast for GDP growth in the fourth quarter now stands at 3.5%.

November 2015 GDP Forecast | Depositors’ inflation hedging puts downward pressure on growth forecast
09 December 2015

Geostat has released its preliminary estimates of GDP growth for the third quarter. The estimated Q3 growth is 2.5%, only 0.1 percentage points below the ISET-PI forecasted value. The forecast for GDP growth in the fourth quarter now stands at 3.6%.

October 2015 GDP Forecast | Deposit dollarization dampens growth forecast
30 October 2015

The final growth forecast for the third quarter of 2015 has not changed significantly since last month (declining by only 0.02%) and remains at 2.6%. Similarly, the second growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2015 is still 3.8%.

September 2015 GDP Forecast | Third quarter growth outlook stable. Deposit dollarization gains momentum in Georgia
17 September 2015

The growth forecast for the third quarter of 2015 has not changed since last month and remains at 2.6%. The first forecast for the fourth quarter growth of 2015 has been targeted at 3.8%.

August 2015 GDP Forecast | Low single digit growth will persist in the 3rd quarter of 2015
14 August 2015

Given the newly revised Q3 forecast, the annual growth in 2015 is expected to be 2.6% in the worst-case, or “no growth” scenario, and 3% in the best-case, or “average long-term growth” scenario (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology).