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Tornike Surguladze
Davit Keshelava

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GDP Forecast
The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar
to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia’s needs.
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November 2014 GDP Forecast | Forecast for growth rates predicted for the second half of the year improved but still low
11 November 2014

Based on the data from September, we have made the sixth update of the Q3 forecast. The Q3 growth forecast was revised upward from 2.2% to 4.1%. The third forecast for the last quarter of 2014 revised up from 0.4% to 1.1%
October 2014 GDP Forecast | Predicted growth rates continue to fall
11 October 2014

Based on the data from August, the fifth update of the Q3 growth forecast was yet again revised downward from 3.7% to 2.2%. The second update of the growth forecast for the last quarter of 2014 was also revised from 1.7% down to 0.4%.
September 2014 GDP Forecast | Alarming fall of growth rates
11 September 2014

Based on July data we made the 4th update of the Q3 forecast, and it was revised down from -7.6%, down to 3.7%. We also begin to forecast the last quarter of 2014, the forecast is not promising, it is just 1.7%.
July 2014 GDP Forecast | High growth rates are maintained
11 June 2014

The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been revised upward from 7.5% to 7.7%. The growth forecast for the 3rd quarter of 2014 has been revised upward from 7.1% to 7.5%.
June 2014 GDP Forecast | Little has changed in quarterly growth patterns
11 June 2014

The growth forecast for the third quarter of 2014 has been targeted at 7.1%. Meanwhile, Geostat has released the GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2014 and its preliminary estimates for April. These are 7.4% and 2.7% respectively. The April growth rate seems to be very low in relation to our forecast, but this low growth figure is most likely due to the relatively high GDP increase in April last year.
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