ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2018, and the first quarter of 2019. These are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat recently updated its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2018. The Q1 and Q2 GDP growth estimates were revised downward to 5.2% and 5.6%, respectively. The third quarter estimates so far remained unchanged.

The real GDP growth rate reached 6.7% year-on-year for October 2018. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first ten months of 2018 was 5.1%.

ISET-PI’s real GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2018 remains at 3.7%.

Based on October’s data, we expect the annual growth in 2018 to be 4.6%.

The growth rate in the first quarter of 2019 is predicted to be 3.1%.

Based on the available data from October, the growth forecast for 2018-2019 remains largely stable. While the changes in the current GDP forecast do not appear to be significant, a few variables deserve our attention. In particular, rapidly increasing national currency deposits; relatively high growth in manufacturing, trading, and construction; improved tourism statistics; and reduced energy consumption each played an important role in establishing the current GDP forecast.