April 2019 GDP Forecast | No credit, no party! Can improved external statistics (except FDI!) and increased volume of deposits still guarantee stable growth?
08 April 2019

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the first and second quarters of 2019 and these are the main features of this month’s release:

ISET-PI’s forecasted real GDP growth for the first two quarters of 2019 remains at 4.3% and 4.6%, respectively.

Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for February 2019. Their estimated growth stands at 4.6%, while the average real GDP growth for January-February 2019 reached 4.1%.

Based on February’s data, we expect 2019 annual growth to be 4.4% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth over the last four quarters) predicts 4.7% real GDP growth.

Based on data from February 2019, our forecast for the first two quarters of 2019 has not changed significantly. The majority of explanatory variables in our model have remained quite stable throughout February. The most meaningful changes were observed in those variables related to the Deposits of Various Maturities in Commercial Banks, Monetary Aggregates, Consumer Credit, and the External Sector.