November 2019 GDP Forecast | Doomsday no more: improved trade balance and resilient external sector keep Georgia’s annual growth projections in line with last year’s performance
18 November 2019

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2019. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Recently, GeoStat has released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2019. The Q3 growth rate now stands at 5.7%, which is 1.4% below ISET-PI’s last forecasted value. As a result, the estimated real GDP growth for the first nine months of 2019 amounted to 5.0%.

ISET-PI revised its forecast of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2019 to 4.4% - down from 5.5% in September.

Based on September’s data, we expect annual growth in 2019 to be 4.9%. This number is in line with the National Bank of Georgia’s growth forecast for 2019 (the forecast remained unchanged at 4.5%). According to the latest Monetary Policy Report, there are two groups of factors that pull growth in opposite directions: (1) the tightened monetary policy (to prevent the emergence of the inflationary expectations) negatively affecting the growth forecast, and (2) improved trade balance and strong fiscal stimulus positively contributing to the growth estimation.