March 2018 extends a long period of “business-as-usual” for Georgian consumers. The overall CCI improved by only 1.6 index points (from -19.1 to -17.5), remaining within the narrow band of [-21, -16] in which it has hovered since July 2017. All the improvement in March is due to the 5.3 index points increase in the Present Situation Index (up from -27.4 to -22.2). Expectations have actually declined by 2 index points (down from -10.8 to -12.8).

The CCI data are generated through a telephone survey of more than 300 randomly sampled individuals and are representative of the Georgian population as a whole. These data reveal some interesting nuances about the impact of geography and demographics on how Georgian consumers feel about their own financial situation and the economy as a whole.

As may have been expected, young (under 35) consumers feel more confident than the older generations. This is reflected in the average CCI performance: the young are 16.6 index points above older consumers when it comes to the overall CCI. What is interesting, however, is that the gap is particularly pronounced concerning people’s ability to save and make major purchases both at present and in the future (boldfaced questions in Table 1). For example, the young are 34.8 index points above the old on the question “Is now the right time for people to make major purchases”. Similarly, they are much more confident in their own ability to save (33.1 index points).

Table 1. THE GAP IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (IN INDEX POINTS): “YOUNG” VS. “OLD”, MARCH 2018

A very similar pattern can be observed when comparing CCI data for Tbilisi and rest-of-Georgia. On average, Tbilisi residents are 20.8 index points more confident than those residing outside the capital. And, again, most of this gap is explained by how people feel about their ability to save and make major purchases (boldfaced questions in Table 2). The differences are even starker in this case. For example, Tbilisi residents are 47.4 index points more confident when responding to the question “Is now the right time for people to make major purchases in Georgia”, and 44.1 index points more confident in their own ability to save in the next 12 months.

Table 2. THE GAP IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (IN INDEX POINTS): TBILISI VS. REST-OF-GEORGIA, MARCH 2018

MONTHLY AND YEARLY CHANGES IN THE CCI VARIABLES

BAR CHARTS: CONSUMER RESPONSES BY QUESTIONS