A slowed rebound. The CCI fluctuated over the summer, reaching its highest value for the period in August before a decline in September.

After the Index had recovered in June, the CCI experienced a slight downturn in July, from -16.7 index points to -18.5, reaching -15.4 points in August and falling to -19.5 in September. The downturn in July mostly derived from a decrease in the Present Situation Index (by 3.4 index points), while the Expectations Index remained at the same level. In August, both sub-indices increased – the Present Situation Index rose by 4.6 index points and the Expectations Index by 1.5 points. Lastly, the fall in September was also more prominent in terms of current sentiment, with the Present Situation Index falling by 6.1 index points and the Expectations Index by 2.1 points. Overall, within the last few months there has been more stability in terms of consumer expectations and greater variation in their perception of the current situation.

One major driver behind the decrease in September was respondents’ current sentiment towards making savings. The indicator spiked in August, when approximately 78% of respondents believed it was a rather good moment to save, and it came down to 62% in September. There may be number of reasons affecting this decrease in sentiment, however one noteworthy factor might be associated with the September season – the return to offices, schools, and universities when higher expenditure is anticipated.

Furthermore, the current financial standing of respondents deteriorated, that which was very stable throughout the summer, with 28% of participants managing to save a share of their income, approximately 47% making ends meet, and 14% running into debt. For September, the respective shares are the following – 12% of respondents manage to save some, 57% are making ends meet, and 18% running into debt. This sentiment could again be associated with increased expenses in the September season.

It is also interesting to see how consumers view the general economic situation in the country as the election period nears. In September, nearly 59% of respondents think the general economic situation has somewhat worsened, 29% believe that it has remained the same, and 11% suppose it has somewhat improved. As for expectations, most respondents say they are unsure how the economic situation in the country will change (33%), 28% believe it will get worse, 23% think it will remain the same, and 16% that it will get better.

Tbilisi vs. the regions. CCI trends have recently been shared between the population of the capital and the regions, however fluctuations in August and September were higher among Tbilisi residents. For September, the CCI for Tbilisi stands at -22.8 index points and for the rest of Georgia the Index is -17.4 points; this follows a recent unusual trend (starting from May) of the CCI being lower in Tbilisi than in the regions, except during August.

Note: Starting in July, the CCI underwent minor shifts in methodology. Specifically, the questionnaire was slightly modified, in terms of how questions were formulated when conducting a survey.