Modest increase in confidence – Consumer confidence improved by a slight 0.8 percentage points in April (from -39.0 in March to -38.2 in April). Unlike in several of the previous consecutive months, however, the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index did not move in tandem: while there are higher hopes for the future, perceptions of the present have deteriorated (see Chart 1).
This quarterly report provides an analysis of economic trends, as well as denoting the challenges and opportunities (in local, regional, and global contexts) in the selected value chains within six sectors to improve evidence-based decision-making by providing quality information and analytics. These specific sectors are tourism, creative industries, light manufacturing, shared intellectual services, waste management, and recycling, along with cross-cutting sectors. The analysis tracks trends from 2014 to the third quarter of 2020.
The average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri in April 2021 was 4.65 GEL. The Index gained 1% compared to the previous month (March 2021). Usually, at this time of year, seasonal declining trend is expected, which is largely driven by a springtime adjustment of the price of milk and milk products.
In March 2021, Georgian power plants generated 661 mln. kWh of electricity. This represents a 24% decrease in total generation, compared to the previous year (March 2020, the total generation was 867 mln. kWh). The decrease in generation on a yearly basis comes from the decrease of 33% in hydropower generation, however, the generation of thermal and wind power have increased by 16% and 0.9%, respectively.
For the second quarter of 2021, BCI decreased by 1.7 index points and reached 1.7 after a significant increase in the previous quarter. The highest decline in business confidence is observed in retail trade, followed by the agriculture and construction sectors. The negative change in BCI for Q2 2021 is driven by pessimistic future expectations.