Indexes
April 2021 | CCI: Georgian consumer confidence rebounds
03
May
2021
Modest increase in confidence – Consumer confidence improved by a slight 0.8 percentage points in April (from -39.0 in March to -38.2 in April). Unlike in several of the previous consecutive months, however, the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index did not move in tandem: while there are higher hopes for the future, perceptions of the present have deteriorated (see Chart 1).
What happened? A closer look at the data reveals that the fall in Tbilisi’s confidence contrasted with an increase in the rest of Georgia, which more than outweighed the pessimism of the capital city (see Chart 2).
But the reason for this is not immediately obvious. The week following Orthodox Easter on May 4-11 has been declared a public holiday. During Easter, people usually go to the countryside to visit their families and, this year, the holidays were extended to slow the spread of COVID-19 (especially from increased post-Easter travel). It is therefore possible that people in the countryside became optimistic as economic activity increased more than usual.
Cautious optimism for the future – Both Tbilisi and the rest of Georgia appear to be more optimistic about the future, even though they have divergent feelings about the present; possibly resulting from an accelerated vaccine rollout (see Chart 3 and Chart 4). We also see that the sentiments of Tbilisians on the present and the future now coincide. If we make an analogy to the financial world, this suggests that one should not expect much movement in the short-term. But for the rest of Georgia, is the index for the future higher with some improvement in sight?
Recent Publications
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October 2024 | CCI deteriorating
10
November
2024
A notable fall in CCI. The decreasing trend has continued after the summer, with the CCI dropping even further in October – from -19.5 in September to -24.9 in October (a 5.4 index point decrease). Both sub-indices contributed to this decline, where the Present Situation Index fell by 6.7 index points and the Expectations Index by 4.2 points.
September 2024 | Decrease in CCI
20
October
2024
A slowed rebound. The CCI fluctuated over the summer, reaching its highest value for the period in August before a decline in September. After the Index had recovered in June, the CCI experienced a slight downturn in July, from -16.7 index points to -18.5, reaching -15.4 points in August and falling to -19.5 in September.
June 2024 | Quick recovery of CCI
29
July
2024
Certain factors negatively influencing consumer sentiment in May failed to have a lasting effect. In June, consumers’ ability to save showed significant improvements, with those able to save a proportion of their income increasing from 2% to 25%.
May 2024 | A notable drop in CCI
08
July
2024
A sharp decrease in CCI. The declining trend that started in April continued in May, with the Consumer Confidence Index dropping by 9.5 index points – from -17.8 in April to -27.3 points in May. The decline was present in both CCI sub-indices, however, it was more prominent in the Present Situation Index. Namely, the Expectations Index declined by 5.5 index points, while the Present Situation Index decreased by 13.4 points.
April 2024 | The CCI is falling
01
May
2024
Decline in the CCI. After the Consumer Confidence Index rose in March, the trend once again reversed in April – with the CCI declining by 4 index points, from -13.8 in March to -17.8 in April. Both the Present Situation and the Expectations Index each decreased, however, the decline was more prominent for people’s expectations; the Present Situation Index decreased by 1.6 points, while the Expectations Index fell by 6.4 points.
