According to the Retail FPI, by the end of February food prices had decreased slightly by 0.01% m/m (that is compared to the end of January), and by 2.6% y/y (that is compared to February 2016). Although overall FPI did not change very much either m/m or y/y, some foods experienced quite notable changes in prices.

The Georgian Business Confidence Index (BCI) continues to decline, albeit at a slower pace. The first-quarter decrease in the Index was mostly driven by a significant decline in past performance.

The average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri in February 2017 is 3.66 GEL, which is 0.2% lower month-on-month (compared to the previous month), and 6.2% higher year-on-year (that is, compared to the same month of last year). The highest price for khachapuri is found in Kutaisi, where the price stands at 3.95 GEL. Telavi took second place with 3.59 GEL.

We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the start of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2017 to be 2.5% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 3.4% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario.

In January 2017, the Khachapuri Index continued its upward seasonal trend, and the new average price of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri reached 3.67 GEL. The average price is 1.9% higher than the price was in January 2016. As for month-to-month developments, the price of khachapuri is 1.3% higher compared to the previous month (December 2016).