Indexes
June 2017 Macro Review | Regional trade turnover, tourism and remittances are on the rise, and so are hopes for recovery in Georgia
20
June
2017
According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s GDP in Q1 of 2017 grew by 5.0% YoY – the highest growth rate since Q3 2014. What lies behind such spectacular growth numbers? First and foremost, it stems from the genuine improvement in the economic situation in the region, which has resulted in increased exports, FDI, tourism, and remittances. Secondly, the sharp increase in the growth rate in December 2016 “lifted” the GDP base and allowed normal GDP improvements to look even better compared to last year’s levels. In April, however, the real GDP growth rate fell sharply to 2.1% YoY, somewhat dampening hopes for swift growth in 2017.
Sharp rises and falls of the year-on-year growth rate from one quarter to the next are not usual. Typically, quarterly growth rates follow particular patterns, which are captured by ISET-PI’s empirical forecast model. Therefore, the unusually high growth in the first quarter could result in overly optimistic predictions about the next quarter’s performance. Indeed, according to ISET-PI’s recent GDP growth forecast, predicted growth in the second and third quarters of 2017 stood at 5.8% and 6.9% respectively.
Recent Publications
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Quarter 3, 2023 Macro Review | Economic landscape in Georgia: navigating growth amidst global uncertainties and regional dynamics
29
December
2023
The global recovery from both the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine is progressing slowly and unevenly. While there was initial economic resilience earlier in the year, marked by a rebound in reopening and efforts to reduce inflation, it is premature to feel reassured. Economic activity has yet to fully return to pre-pandemic levels, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies, and regional disparities are widening.
Quarter 2, 2023 Macro Review | Annual economic review: unpacking the slower GDP growth, inflation stability, and changing the FX stream dynamics
23
October
2023
Global economic growth is anticipated to decrease from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024. In comparison to the April 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections, there has been a modest 0.2 percentage point improvement in the growth forecast for 2023, while the 2024 projection remains unchanged.
Quarter 1 2023, Macro Review | Georgian economy moves ahead, but fears of global headwinds mar the start of 2023
03
July
2023
The global economy remains in a volatile state amid the prolonged effects of the combined negative shocks of the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, high inflation, and the tightening monetary policy. Although the global economy remained resilient at the beginning of the year, the situation is expected to worsen.
Quarter 4 2022, Macro Review | Georgian economy 2022 – the year in review
10
April
2023
In 2022 Georgia stayed on the path of recovery, exceeding experts’ expectations of economic performance. According to GeoStat’s preliminary estimates, the real GDP continues to show double-digit growth rates, measuring at 10.1% y/y in 2022 – which is remarkably close to the NBG’s real GDP growth expectation of 10% from October 2022.
Quarter 3 2022 | Macro Review: A perfect storm of global challenges in 2022 tests the resilience of the Georgian economy
26
December
2022
The third quarter of 2022 was marked by a “perfect storm” of global challenges. Due to the ongoing geopolitical, economic, and ecological turbulence, with inflation reaching its highest point in decades, the world economy remains volatile.
