In January, the cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri continued to increase, ranging from 3.56 GEL (Batumi and Tbilisi) to 3.92 GEL (Kutaisi), with the average cost being 3.67 GEL. The new average price is 1.9% higher than the price in January 2016. As for month-to-month development, the price of khachapuri is 1.3% higher compared to the previous month (December 2016).

Unofficial (partial) dollarization describes a situation when a foreign currency is used alongside the domestic currency for transactions purposes and as a store value. High partial dollarization is not good for a country, as it ties the hands of its Central Bank when it wants to use monetary policy. In a highly dollarized economy, national currency depreciation can even lead to financial instability.

According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 2.1% in July 2016, while the growth rate for Q2 stood at 2.3% year over year (YoY). The estimated second quarter growth was thus 1.6 percentage points lower than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter.

The average Sale Price (ASP) for residential properties has fallen consistently over last 3 months, to its current level of USD 836 [GEL 1829]. ASP rose to a year-high of USD 900 [GEL 2159] in December 2015 and fell to a year-low of USD 836 [GEL 1940] in August 2015 and June 2016. Appreciation of GEL since February 2016 exerted downward pressure on prices expressed in local currency decreasing at faster rates compared to prices in USD.

We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the beginning of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 2.0% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario.