Based on the data from August, the fifth update of the Q3 growth forecast was yet again revised downward from 3.7% to 2.2%. The second update of the growth forecast for the last quarter of 2014 was also revised from 1.7% down to 0.4%.

Based on July data we made the 4th update of the Q3 forecast, and it was revised down from -7.6%, down to 3.7%. We also begin to forecast the last quarter of 2014, the forecast is not promising, it is just 1.7%.

After a dip in April, the GDP growth rate seems to be back on track, the year-on-year growth rate in July was 7.2%. Higher rates of electricity consumption and an increase in the change of VAT payers’ turnover corroborate this evidence. In July electricity consumption and VAT payers’ turnover were 3.8 and 15.4 percent higher compared to the same month in the previous year.

The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been revised upward from 7.5% to 7.7%. The growth forecast for the 3rd quarter of 2014 has been revised upward from 7.1% to 7.5%.

The growth forecast for the third quarter of 2014 has been targeted at 7.1%. Meanwhile, Geostat has released the GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2014 and its preliminary estimates for April. These are 7.4% and 2.7% respectively. The April growth rate seems to be very low in relation to our forecast, but this low growth figure is most likely due to the relatively high GDP increase in April last year.