October 2014 GDP Forecast | Predicted growth rates continue to fall

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11 October 2014

ISET-PI has updated its forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using August 2014 releases of various economic indicators.

Based on the data from August, the fifth update of the Q3 growth forecast was yet again revised downward from 3.7% to 2.2%.

The second update of the growth forecast for the last quarter of 2014 was also revised from 1.7% down to 0.4%.

Meanwhile, Geostat has released the “rapid estimates” of monthly growth rate for August 2014. The August estimate is still a hefty 5.2%, although this data is preliminary and is set to be further revised in the future.

At the beginning of 2014, we started to forecast the annual growth rate for 2014 (see our January and February publications for a note on the methodology). Based on the forecasts available for each quarter, we predict that GDP growth in Georgia in 2014 will be 3.5%. This forecast represents a downgrade from our earlier prediction of 4.3% annual growth. The downward revision carries through, even if we use a slightly different methodology to forecast annual growth.

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