September 2014 GDP Forecast | Alarming fall of growth rates

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11 September 2014

ISET PI has updated the forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the July 2014 releases of various economic indicators.

Based on July data we made the 4th update of the Q3 forecast, and it was revised down from -7.6%, down to 3.7%.

We also begin to forecast the last quarter of 2014, the forecast is not promising, it is just 1.7%.

Meanwhile, Geostat has released the official quarterly growth GDP rate for the second quarter of 2014 and it is 5.2% (This data is still preliminary and will be revised in the future).

From 2014 we started to draw some conclusions about the annual growth rate for year 2014. Since we have already the final figures or forecasts for each quarter of 2014 we will not use the methodology which we have used in previous months and which is explained in our February and January publications. Yearly growth in 2014 is estimated to be 4.3%. If instead of our first vintage of fourth Quarter we will take the historical average of all previous quarters we will get the same 4.3% annual growth in 2014, which in itself is quite close to EBRD-s and World Banks estimation of GDP growth of Georgia, they are respectively 4 and 5%.

Tags: #index, #gdp, #gdp forecast, #economic growth,

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