June 2014 GDP Forecast | Little has changed in quarterly growth patterns
11 June 2014

ISET-PI has updated its forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the April 2014 releases of various economic indicators.

The growth forecast for the second quarter of 2014 has been revised downward from 7.7% to 7.45%.

The growth forecast for the third quarter of 2014 has been targeted at 7.1%. Meanwhile, Geostat has released the GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2014 and its preliminary estimates for April. These are 7.4% and 2.7% respectively. The April growth rate seems to be very low in relation to our forecast, but this low growth figure is most likely due to the relatively high GDP increase in April last year.

Since the beginning of the year, we have been drawing some conclusions about the annual growth rate for 2014. The methodology that we use and the scenario description are explained in our February and January publications. Given these developments, we expect the annual growth rate in 2014 to be 6.2% at the very least, and it is more likely to be somewhere around 6.6%.