Based on the data from September, we have made the sixth update of the Q3 forecast. The Q3 growth forecast was revised upward from 2.2% to 4.1%. The third forecast for the last quarter of 2014 revised up from 0.4% to 1.1%

Based on the data from August, the fifth update of the Q3 growth forecast was yet again revised downward from 3.7% to 2.2%. The second update of the growth forecast for the last quarter of 2014 was also revised from 1.7% down to 0.4%.

Based on July data we made the 4th update of the Q3 forecast, and it was revised down from -7.6%, down to 3.7%. We also begin to forecast the last quarter of 2014, the forecast is not promising, it is just 1.7%.

In recent months, ISET‐PI has devoted considerable time to explore the reasons behind the sharp decline in annual real GDP growth in 2013 (from 6.2% in 2012 to 3.3%). With official data for the whole of 2013 finally becoming available, we are taking this opportunity to revisit our previous conclusions and offer new insights.

The growth forecast for the 4th quarter of 2013 has been revised downward from 5.2%to 4.9%. The forecast for the first quarter of 2014 has also been reduced from 6.5% to 5.7%. Given the Geostat data for the first three quarters and the ISET-PI forecast for the 4th quarter, the annual growth rate for 2013 is projected to be 2.6%.