ISET-PI has updated its forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the November 2014 releases of various economic indicators.

Based on the November data, the growth forecast for the last quarter of 2014 was revised upward from 3.6% to 3.9%.

The second forecast for the first quarter of 2015 increased from the initial 3.2% to 3.7%.

For the first time since June 2013, Geostat’s “rapid estimate” of monthly growth is negative, with GDP growth for November estimated at -0.5%.

We started drawing conclusions about the annual growth rate for 2014 at the beginning of the year. Using official Geostat quarterly growth estimates (when available), we arrive at a 5.4% GDP growth forecast for 2014. If we instead use the predictions generated by our model, namely the 5th vintages of growth forecasts for each quarter, then the annual growth prediction for 2014 falls to 5.1%. At the same time, the Georgian government’s official forecast is 5% economic growth for 2014.