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Tornike Surguladze
Davit Keshelava

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GDP Forecast
The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar
to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia’s needs.
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May 2014 GDP Forecast | High growth rates are maintained
11 May 2014

The growth forecast for the 1st quarter of 2014has been revised slightly upward from 7.3% to 7.4%. The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been targeted at 7.7%.
April 2014 GDP Forecast | Georgian economy turns back to high growth rates
11 April 2014

The growth forecast for the 1st quarter of 2014 has been revised upward from 5.3% to 7.3%. The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been targeted at 7.0%. Meanwhile, Geostat has released an official quarterly growth GDP rate for the last quarter of 2013 and it is quite impressive 7.1%.
March 2014 GDP Forecast | Quarterly patterns maintained
11 March 2014

The growth forecast for the 1st quarter of 2014 has been revised downward from 5.6% to 5.3%. The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been targeted at 5.9%. Meanwhile, Geostat has updated the GDP annual growth estimate of 2013 from 3.1% to 3.2%.
February 2014 GDP Forecast | Leading GDP indicator for Georgia
11 February 2014

The growth forecast for the 4th quarter of 2013 is unchanged at 4.9%, suggesting annual growth of 2.6%, while Geostat’s flash estimates are 6.9% for 2013Q4 and 3.1% for the whole year.
January 2014 GDP Forecast | High hopes maintained
11 January 2014

The growth forecast for the 4th quarter of 2013 has been revised downward from 5.2%to 4.9%. The forecast for the first quarter of 2014 has also been reduced from 6.5% to 5.7%. Given the Geostat data for the first three quarters and the ISET-PI forecast for the 4th quarter, the annual growth rate for 2013 is projected to be 2.6%.
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