ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the third and fourth quarters of 2022. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter (July-September) of 2022 decreased by 0.1 ppt to 16.4% compared to the last month’s prediction. The third estimate for the fourth quarter (October-December) growth forecast remains unchanged at 17.3%.

Geostat recently published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for August 2022, which currently stands at 10.5%. As a result, the real GDP growth estimate for the first eight months of 2020 is 10.3%. Based on August’s data, we expect annual growth in 2022 to be 13.8%. This number is most likely overestimated by the model at the current point in time. This is due to the fact that war, sanctions, and large-scale in-migration had not had relevant analogues in the Georgian data in the past.