ISET-PI has updated its forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the October 2014 releases of various economic indicators.
Based on the October data, the growth forecast for the last quarter of 2014 was revised upward from 1.1% to 3.6%.
We have started to forecast the first quarter of 2015, with the initial forecast standing at 3.2%.
Meanwhile, Geostat’s “rapid estimate” growth forecast for the month of October is 3.5%.
We started drawing conclusions about the annual growth rate for 2014 at the beginning of the year (see our January and February publications for a note on our methodology). We used the forecasts available for each quarter to predict that Georgia’s GDP growth in 2014 will be 5.3%. This figure is quite close to the official 5% annual growth forecast made by the Georgian government.