September 2017 GDP Forecast | Strong trade, tourism, and remittances growth drive an optimistic forecast for 2017
20 September 2017

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the third and fourth quarters of 2017. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Recently, Geostat published the preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2017, which now stands at 4.7%. This is 0.7 percentage points above the previously estimated average growth rate for Q2. As a result, the real GDP growth for the first half of 2017 reached 4.9%.

The ISET-PI real GDP growth forecast for both the third and the fourth quarter of 2017 has been revised to 5.9%.

Based on July data, we expect the annual growth in 2017 to reach 5.3%. The more optimistic forecast is consistent with evidence coming from international development institutions. For example, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) recently revised its expectations for real GDP growth in Georgia from 3.8% to 4.2% in 2017. According to the ADB’s updated report, Georgia is ahead of the majority of countries in the region, such as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. Among the reasons behind the revision is the increased funding of infrastructure projects in Georgia, increased tourist flows, improved remittances, and export statistics.