March 2015 GDP Forecast | Low growth rate is guaranteed in the first half of the year

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08 May 2015

ISET PI has updated the forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the January 2014 releases of various economic indicators.

The growth forecast for the 1st quarter of 2014 has been revised downward from 3.6% to 0.5%.

The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been targeted at a low 1.6%.

Meanwhile, Geostat has updated the GDP growth estimate for January 2015, and similarly to our forecast, it stands at 0.5%.

From the beginning of last year, we started drawing conclusions about the annual growth rate for the ongoing year (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2015 to be 0.7% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 1.8% in the best-case or “average long term growth” scenario.

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