Indexes
November 2021 GDP Forecast | Georgian economic growth in 2021 driven mainly by the recovering external sector
15
November
2021
ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:
According to Geostat’s updated estimate, Q3 2021 growth rate stands at 9%. As a result, the real GDP growth estimate for the first nine months of 2021 is 11.3%.
Geostat has also revised estimates for real GDP growth for 2020, and now it stands at -6.8%, which is slightly lower than the previous estimate of -6.2%.
As a result of the update, the ISET-PI growth forecast for Q4 of 2021 was changed to 10.9%. ISET-PI’s first forecast for Q1 of 2022 puts GDP growth at 7.8%.
Based on September’s data, we expect annual growth in 2021 to be 10.8%. Historically, our model’s forecast based on September data is rather accurate, but this year the number is most likely slightly overestimated. This is because of the nature of the shock (a transitory lockdown event and difficult epidemiological situation) in the last three quarters of 2020 and correspondingly abnormally high GDP growth (base effect, increased external demand, and higher commodity prices) in the second quarter of 2021, had not had relevant analogues in the Georgian data.
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October 2024 | Economic indicators for georgia's growth: august 2024 gdp boosted by lending expansion and trade gains
25
October
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for July 2024, which stands at 13%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first and second quarters of 2024 reached 8.4% and 9.6%, respectively. Consequently, the average real GDP growth from January to August 2024 reached 10%.
September 2024 | Georgia sustains robust growth outlook: strengthened external sector and expanded lending drive economic momentum
23
September
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for July 2024, which stands at 13%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first and second quarters of 2024 reached 8.4% and 9.5%, respectively. As a result, the average real GDP growth from January to July 2024 was 9.7%.
July 2024 | Strong growth forecast persists despite May 2024 trade decline, remittance drop, and lari depreciation
22
July
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for May 2024, which stands at 9.2%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first quarter of 2024 reached 8.4%, which is 0.6 ppt higher than the previous estimate. As a result, the average real GDP growth for January - May 2024 reached 9.3%.
June 2024 | Resilient GDP growth forecast despite trade and remittance challenges in April
24
June
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for April 2024, which stands at 11.8%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first quarter of 2024 reached 7.8%.
May 2024 | Economic growth stays strong despite risks: export/import drops, remittance challenges, and low inflation
24
May
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for March 2024, which stands at 8.2%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first quarter of 2024 reached 7.8%.
